I still see a lot of threads on here and on Reddit regarding the Burgundian Inheritance. So I thought I'd just explain it briefly to anyone who is still unsure, and then explain why I think it isn't working as best as it could. This will cover if you're playing as Austria/France/third party or indeed Burgundy.
Succession Crisis
As I understand, when Charles de Bourgogne becomes ruler, a trigger is fired that means the succession crisis begins. If Charles does not become ruler (dies as an heir), or you disinherit him as a player (which you can do, just at least one of your subjects will become disloyal because of the lack of prestige) the event will never fire.
The event 100% fires if Charles dies with either: 1) No heir, 2) Marie de Bourgogne (4/5/3) as an heir, 3) An heir with a weak claim, 4) Can occasionally fire with an heir who has an average claim. If Charles gets an heir with a strong claim that is not Marie, then the event won't fire as long as the heir doesn't die.
If Charles, or you as the player disinherit an heir, you have a -95% chance of getting a new heir.
The event can still fire after 1500. Indeed, if Charles does get an heir that is not Marie, most likely he will live until he is 70 something (or even 80 as I've found out).
It is worth noting, Burgundy are not exempt from the kind of events you as the player get when you get no heir that give you potentially a weak heir or a female weak heir, so the chance of Burgundy getting an heir is quite high, roughly the same chance as England getting an heir to prevent the War of the Roses although I've found Burgundy getting an heir to be way more common.
The reason why Burgundy getting an heir is more common than before is because Charles is no longer a general. More on that later.
There is a MTTH on the event if Charles has no heir of 120 months from 1453 and that is halved from 1473. Basically if the event does fire, it can fire as early as 1453 (I've seen it happen).
Who gets the inheritance?
So if the inheritance does fire, the AI gets three options:
1) Marry the Emperor.
2) Integrate with the French.
3) A third party, usually whoever is the strongest marriage partner. NOTE: YOU Have to send the marriage because of the way the game reads the event.
4) Independence (Burgundy will remain Burgundy) meaning Marie rules.
Marrying the emperor means that France will declare war. The emperor gets an option to cede land to France, integrate the lowlands into the HRE or keep the union. Austria will almost never cede land to France.
If France or a third party gets the inheritance, the emperor gets the option to demand the lowlands, declare war for the whole union or abandon the claim. They will almost always demand the lowlands and might declare war if you refuse. It says that they will declare war if you refuse, but the AI generally looks at your alliances and doesn't bother if you can't be beaten.
Honestly, in either case (whether it's war with France or Austria) you actually want the war to happen. It's a defensive war for you meaning they don't call in allies and it's extremely easy to win if you're Austria/France with Burgundy and have a strong ally.
If you're playing as Burgundy, you want to fall under PU with France. The reason being is you instantly inherit all your PUs and England/Austria will likely support your independence. Meaning you get your PUs and then can take land off of France. Much harder to get your independence supported under the Austria. Be aware that in either case, HRE actions may make you release the lowlands but quite likely France wants to keep the whole union.
Now who actually gets the inheritance almost always boils down to rivalries. I've looked at the coding but I think regardless it's tilted in favour of the emperor.
It works like this in practice.
If you're France, Burgundy rivals Austria and is friendly to you. you will 95% get it. Vice versa is true if you're Austria/emperor and they are rivalled to France. If you are France and they are not rivalled to the emperor or you, the emperor usually gets it. If they rival both France and Austria, they have a high chance of going independent.
If you're a third party, like Castile you have a very high chance of getting it if Burgundy rival both France and Austria but it can still happen if they are only rivalled to one or neither.
As Castile, if you're married to Austria, you will get an event giving your the lowlands.
Independent Burgundy
If you end up as an independent Burgundy as a player, after surviving succession, you get the option to join the HRE. If the emperor refuses, you get a PU CB on ALL the electors, which is insanely OP. My experience is the emperor will let you in, even if you piss them off.
Part two below.
